VALIDATION OF AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR KRISHNA AGRO-CLIMATIC ZONE OFANDHRA PRADESH

M. RATNAM¹*, S. VINDYA², P. VENKATA RAO^3
1Grameena Krishi Mousam Sewa, Regional Agricultural Research Station, Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University, Lam, Guntur, 522034, Andhra Pradesh India
²Grameena Krishi Mousam Sewa, Regional Agricultural Research Station, Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University, Lam, Guntur, 522034, Andhra Pradesh India
³Grameena Krishi Mousam Sewa, Regional Agricultural Research Station, Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University, Lam, Guntur, 522034, Andhra Pradesh India
* Corresponding Author : mekala1968@gmail.com

Received : 25-10-2018     Accepted : 27-11-2018     Published : 30-11-2018
Volume : 10     Issue : 22       Pages : 7491 - 7492
Int J Agr Sci 10.22 (2018):7491-7492

Keywords : Agro meteorological forecast, Monsoon, validation, Skill score
Academic Editor : Perli Monisha
Conflict of Interest : None declared
Acknowledgements/Funding : Authors are thankful to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Regional Met Centre, Hyderabad for providing the daily rainfall forecast and APSDPS, Govt. of Andhra Pradesh for the provision of rainfall data for Krishna agro-climatic zone of coastal Andhra Pradesh. Authors are also thankful to Grameena Krishi Mousam Sewa, Regional Agricultural Research Station, Lam, Guntur, 522034, Andhra Pradesh India
Author Contribution : All authors equally contributed

In this article an attempt has been made to validate month wise and season wise rainfall forecast issued to Krishna agro-climatic zone (it includes Krishna, Guntur and Prakasam districts) of south coastal Andhra Pradesh for 2017-18 by using skill score analysis. The skill score averaged for South West monsoon (June-September) for Krishna, Guntur and Prakasam indicated that it was 86%, 83% and 88% respectively as a whole it was 86% for the zone, and in North East monsoon, it was 74%, 76% and 66% respectively as a whole it was 72% for the zone. Month wise and season wise percent deviation of forecasted rainfall from its normal and actual was also validated and that indicate southwest monsoon ( June to September) period indicated that -46 % and -35% for Krishna district, -50% and -50% for Guntur district and for Prakasam district it was -64% and -68%, during northeast monsoon (October to December) period indicated that -91 % and -86% for Krishna district, -89% and -75% for Guntur district and for Prakasam district it was -89% and -64% and entire monsoon (June to December) period were -69 % and -66% for Krishna district, -67% and -61% for Guntur district and for Prakasam district it was -76% and -66%.

1. Rana R.S., Sood R., Adity and Shekhar J., (2013) Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 83 (12), 1357-1363.
2. Shinde P.B., Dakhore K.K, Warkar D.P. (2017) Journal of Agricultural Research Technology, 42(3), 089-093.
3. Varshenya M.C., Vaidya V.B.,Vyaspandey, Shekh A.M.,Karande B.I. (2008) Journal of Agrometeorology (Special issue-Part 2), 345-348.